Arrival of longer-range U.S. artillery keeps Ukraine in the fight, experts say

Ukrainian officials say the arrival of longer-range artillery from its western allies is shifting the balance of forces on the battlefield in its favor as the conflict has turned into a lengthy war of attrition with no end in sight.

Ukraine is now able to inflict "significant losses" on the Russians, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday, after suffering incremental territorial losses for the last few weeks in the eastern Donbas region. In his nightly video address, Zelensky said, "It is increasingly difficult for the Russian army to hold positions on the captured territory."

Russia switched its focus to Ukraine's eastern Donbas region in March, after a failed bid to capture the capital Kyiv in the north when the invasion began in February. So far, the smaller but better-trained and led Ukrainian forces have done a remarkable tactical job on the battlefield, allowing them to out-manouever Russia’s superior military might. But as they mass their forces in the Donbas this has allowed the Russians to make limited territorial gains.

“It’s really a war of attrition out there where Russia is massing its combat power,” said Col Liam Collins, who was the U.S. military’s Senior Defense Advisor to Ukraine from 2016-2018. “Ukraine has a smaller military and so it can't take heavy losses, it will pull back rather than suffer heavy losses,” Collins told Univision after recently returning from a visit to Ukraine.

In fact, Ukrainian gains in other parts of the country, such as the area around the major city of Kharkiv have outstripped Russian gains in the Donbas. “Everybody is now realizing it’s going to be a long war. This is a race to see who gets tired first,” said Erich de la Fuente, a Russian-speaking Eastern Europe expert at Florida International University (FIU).

“Russia is making gains but they are losing men all the time. They are suffering significant losses, exhausting some of their weapons systems and ammunition,” added de la Fuente, who is traveling in eastern Europe and was recently in Ukraine.

A senior Ukrainian official claimed this week that 36,000 Russian troops and 12,000 mercenaries have been killed in battle. But western experts say it’s impossible to get reliable data for casualties - on either side. Russia has lost approximately 25 percent of its active tank force, over 30 aircraft and more than 10,000 troops, according to some military experts.

Long-range artillery helps Ukraine withstand Russia’s military onslaught

As the war has moved into a new phase of longer-term containment, the Biden administration announced this month it was sending Ukraine an additional $1.2 billion military assistance with a new focus on high-precision long-range weapons, as well as $820 million for air defense systems. At a press conference, Biden said that the U.S. would support Ukraine “as long as it takes” to make sure that it is not defeated by Russia.

The package consists of four High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, (HIMARS), adding to the eight that Washington already has deliveredto Kyiv. U.S. officials say the precision of these new weapons will help the Ukrainian military preserve its stocks of munitions due to greater efficiency hitting targets.

“Ukrainian HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition depots, logistics elements, and command and control are likely degrading Russian artillery campaigns,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported Saturday.

The HIMARS is a mobile system that can be quickly deployed and then evade detection, “allowing the Ukrainians to target the Russians at greater distance and in areas that have been denied to them because of Russian air defense systems,” according to Maj Gen Mick Ryan, an Australian officer and scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

“HIMARS, because of its range and accuracy, is a weapon that is designed to attack targets deep in the enemy’s rear. It is used to destroy critical communications nodes, command posts, airfields, and important logistics facilities,” Ryan wrote on Twitter.

It appears that more than a dozen major Russian supply depots, primarily used to store artillery ammunition, have been attacked by HIMARS rockets in the past few days, according to CNN.

Since January 2021, the United States has invested more than $7.9 billion in security assistance, according to the U.S. State Department. This includes more than $7.3 billion since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

That includes more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems; 6,500 Javelin anti-tank systems, 700 ‘Switchblade’ military drones, 300,000 artillery rounds and more than 59 million rounds of small arms ammunition. On top of that, the U.S. has supplied hundreds of vehicles, 20 helicopters, radar, electronic jamming equipment, body armor and first aid kits.

Other NATO countries have also sent 12,000 anti-tank systems and more than 1,550 anti-air missiles; radars; night vision devices; machine guns; rifles and ammunition.

“Protracted hostilities” now forecast by military experts

An analysis from the ISW suggests “the Kremlin may be setting long-term conditions… in anticipation of protracted hostilities in Ukraine.”

In early July Russian president, Vladimir Putin, issued a defiant warning to the west claiming that Moscow has barely started its military campaign in Ukraine. “Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest," he stated. The war might drag on to "the last Ukrainian left standing", he added ominously.

That drew a sarcastic response from Gen Ben Hodges, the former head of the U.S. Army in Europe. “This won’t be very comforting to the Families of the 20,000(+) dead Russian Soldiers…to learn their soldier died in an effort where their President hadn’t really started anything in earnest yet,” he tweeted.

Meanwhile, both sides are expanding their efforts to win international backing. Ukraine's first lady, Olena Zelenska, met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday as part of her high-profile trip to the United States, where she will address members of Congress and meet US first lady Jill Biden.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Iran on Tuesday, where he will meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Iranian leader Ebrahim Raisi. It’s just his second international trip since launching his invasion of Ukraine, and his first outside the boundaries of the former Soviet Union during this period.

Putin and Erdogan are set to discuss the issue of exporting grain from Ukrainian ports, the Kremlin said ahead of the trip, according to state news agencies. Recently declassified US intelligence indicates that Iran is expected to supply Russia with "hundreds" of military drones, with Iran preparing to begin training Russian forces on how to operate them as early as late July, according to White House officials.

It remains unclear how long either side can continue fighting. “Without a doubt, this war is going to last many months, most likely years,” said Collins, noting that the conflict with Donbas started in 2014 and stepped up again after Putin invaded the north of Ukraine in February.

“Russia will keep at it long enough until they win outright, which I think unlikely, or the pain is so significant. I don't see a negotiated agreement is really an option," said Collins.

During his visit Collins was impressed by the role of volunteers in the Ukrainian military which had bolstered their ranks. “They have tens of thousands of volunteers. They definitely can mobilize more troops than Russia is able to throw at them. They are extremely motivated and morale is still darn high,” he said. “Ukraine can probably withstand its losses as long as they are smart about it,” he added.

But, De la Fuente warned against what he called “western over-optimism” about Russian casualties and the impact of sanctions, noting that Russia still enjoyed vast revenue from its sale of oil and gas, estimated as high as $2 billion a week.

“At this point, there’s no victory for Ukraine... it’s now about surviving as a country and not losing any more major cities,” he said. “There are no winners here,” he added.