War in Ukraine: "We are heading for negotiations, not because Russia wants to but because it has to".

Ukrainian and Russian officials continued to meet for talks this week, supposedly to end the brutal conflict that has shocked the entire world.

Both sides say their negotiators are trying to figure out a potential peace deal, but it remains unclear how much of that is posturing as each tries to out-maneuver the other.

Experts increasingly see signs of a stalemate on the battlefield, as civilian casualties mount and the United States steps up more its military support for Ukraine’s brave resistance to the Russian invaders. Meanwhile, the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II is straining the resources of Ukraine’s neighbors, especially Poland, and fear of a possible nuclear conflict, once deemed unthinkable, is on the mind of millions of people.

So, three weeks into the war in Ukraine, is there any end in sight? If so, is there any indication of how will it end?

“The Russian invasion has failed to destroy Ukraine’s statehood,” said Erich de la Fuente, a Russian-speaking Eastern Europe expert at Florida International University (FIU). “I think we’re headed into negotiations, not because Russia wants to but because Russia has to,” he added.

The Kremlin has confirmed media reports of a potential 15-point peace deal, while president Vladimir Putin rejects any suggestions that the invasion is not going according to plan.

Putin’s off-ramp and the prospects for peace in Ukraine

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators appear to be taking peace talks seriously, but the gaps between them are still large and it’s too early to know how soon they might reach any agreement, diplomats say.

"We are working on documents that the presidents will be able to discuss further and sign. Obviously this is coming sometime soon because this is the only way to end this war," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told PBS.

Putin's initial aim was to overrun Ukraine and depose its government, killing off any attempt to join the Western military defense alliance, NATO.

No-one realistically expects Putin to sign a peace agreement which might accept his own defeat – and possibly downfall. So, experts say the key will be looking for ways for Putin to save face, what may like to call an ‘off ramp.’

“Even though they lost the invasion, Putin needs to salvage the battle for public opinion internally,” said de la Fuente.

Latest reports from peace talks suggest Putin may already be softening his position. Russia is no longer seeking to overthrow president Vladimir Zelensky, who has won worldwide praise for his wartime leadership. Instead, Putin wants an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral in future, and shouldn’t become a member of the western military alliance, NATO.

That’s something he might now get from Zelensky, to stop the shelling of his cities and save lives.

Zelensky may be forced to make concessions

After what’s happened, Zelensky appears to have recognized that his country will never be admitted into NATO as a member: "It's a truth and it must be recognized", he said recently.

Putin may also already have redrawn the map of Ukraine in his favor by forcing to many refuges to flee some cities in areas Putin seeks to impose Russian control.

Putin is demanding that Ukraine recognize the independence of parts of separatist-run eastern Ukraine, and acceptance from Zelensky that Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, is now a permanent part of Russia.

That’s tougher for Zelensky to swallow, but could be something left to out after a ceasefire.
Ukraine’s economy was already heavily in debt to the tune of $129 billion and the West could sweeten the pot for Zelensky by simply wiping it out.

Other demands Putin is making include his bizarre insistence on denazification and a commitment to protect the Russian language. While the former might seem unreasonable in the eyes of Zelensky, who is Jewish, it might be something that could be overlooked for the sake of a broader agreement. Zelensky is also from Ukraine’s Russian-speaking southeast region, and grew up speaking better Russian than Ukrainian. The two languages have similar vocabulary and grammar, as well as pronunciation, and both use the Cyrillic alphabet, with slight variations.

Does naming Putin a “war criminal” make a peace agreement harder?

While Putin’s propaganda machine seems to be working at home, with few signs of any serious threat to his government, he looks increasingly cornered internationally, by sweeping economic sanctions and an investigation already under way into war crimes.

On Wednesday Biden joined others in calling Putin a “war criminal”, possibly making it harder for the Russian president to step back. If he ends up being prosecuted by the International Court of Justice (ICC) he would be unable to leave Russia and could end up jailed in The Hague with the ‘Butcher of Bosnia’ Radovan Karadžić, a string of African war lords.

That could provide more leverage in the negotiations, though it could also become an awkward obstacle to peace.

“Given the pace of ICC activity and the intense pressure to address atrocities, it is important to consider how these accountability efforts might intersect with diplomatic efforts to end the war,” according to David Bosco, an expert on the international court at Indiana University.

“As the investigation develops, the prosecutor will also need to consider the timing of any charges… For example, if the evidence against senior Russian leaders coalesces just as peace negotiations are at a critical phase, the prosecutor might well decide to delay in order not to disrupt diplomacy,” Bosco wrote in an article for Just Security, an online publication.

As the ground thaws, Russia’s military running out of time in Ukraine

Military analysts say Putin’s options may be narrowing. His troops have suffered heavy casualties - as many as 7,000 men, including four generals - western analysts say. Then there is the loss of tanks and warplanes and the failure to capture any major Ukrainian city.

Russian forces have been unable to make a “strategic breakthrough” against the stiff Ukrainian resistance, Western officials say.

Russia’s offensive is reaching “the culmination point,” said Lt Col Tyson Wetzel, a U.S. Air Force officer at the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security in Washington DC. “They've bitten off too much and their lines are extremely stretched. They are not to support [their troops] logistically,” he added.

Putin now faces two choices. Get serious at the negotiating table or “double down with greater brutality,” one Western military official told reporters in a briefing on Thursday.

“It all depends on happens in the next few days,” said de la Fuente, adding that Putin could still try to make a final push to take the bombed-out cities of Kharkiv or Mariupol in the south, which were considered most likely to fall quickly at the start of the invasion.

Instead, both cities have held out, despite terrible loss of life under indiscriminate Russian bombardment of apartment buildings, and hospitals and a theater being used as a bomb shelter.

Mariupol is considered strategic to Putin’s goals as it is an important port, also providing a land bridge to the Crimea, which was seized by Russia in 2014.

De la Fuente noted that “Putin may have made a mistake waiting for the Winter Olympics to end in China before invading.”

As winter turns to spring the frozen ground in Ukraine is beginning to melt making it harder for Russian tanks and heavy armored vehicles to maneuver, especially in the vast farmland of central Ukraine.

The U.S. steps up its arming of Ukraine

For his part, Zelensky continues to call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but that seems to be a non-starter. Failing that, Zelensky suggested “an alternative” in his speech to the U.S. Congress this week; enough ground-to-air weapons and air-defense systems to repel the Russian missile and rocket attacks that are destroying his cities.

Ukraine is suffering losses too, and it’s not clear "how long they can hold out", one Western officials told journalists in a briefing on Thursday.

U.S. President Joe Biden pledged this week to send Ukraine an additional $800 million in military assistance, including weaponized Switchblade ‘kamikaze drones’ along with Stinger anti-aircraft systems, long-range S-300 air defense systems, anti-tank weapons and 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition. That makes a total of $2 billion in such aid since Biden took office more than a year ago, and Congress has already approved a broader package of $13.6 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

Can Putin be trusted to honor with a ceasefire?

Above all, Zelensky wants a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops, and security guarantees that would give Ukraine protection from a group of allied countries that would “actively” prevent any future attacks.

Many remain suspicious of what a ceasefire might look like in Putin’s eyes.

“To Putin “ceasefire” just means “reload”. Sanctions must stay and get stronger as long as any Russian forces are in Ukraine,” tweeted Garry Kasparov, the exiled former Russian chess master and vocal Putin critic.

There is also the fear that Putin could escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine, striking another country like Japan did to the United States at Pearl Harbor in 1941. Most analysts now see that as less likely given his weakened military position in Ukraine.

Instead, some experts say Putin is now more likely looking for ways to survive in power, rather than make more problems for himself.

The situation on the battlefield has also shifted so dramatically that the Ukrainian government and military is also now prepared to dig in and outlast Putin’s offensive.

“Everybody is a bit surprised no other city has fallen”, said de la Fuente.

“Their psyche went from ‘Oh my God, can we resist, can we defend Kyiv’. At this point, they really believe they can win, not only hold on,” he added.